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| Chaos, persistence, and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents |
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| Author(s): Gupta S, Ferguson N, Anderson R |
| Source: SCIENCE Volume: 280 Issue: 5365 Pages: 912-915 Published: MAY 8 1998 |
| Times Cited: 95 References: 23 |
| Abstract: The effects of selection by host immune responses on transmission dynamics was analyzed in a broad class of antigenically diverse pathogens. Strong selection can cause pathogen populations to stably segregate into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires. However, over a wide range of intermediate levels of selection, strain structure is unstable, varying in a manner that is either cyclical or chaotic. These results have implications for the interpretation of longitudinal epidemiological data on strain or serotype abundance, design of surveillance strategies, and the assessment of multivalent vaccine trials. |
| Document Type: Article |
| Language: English |
| Reprint Address: Gupta, S (reprint author), Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Wellcome Trust Ctr Epidemiol Infect Dis, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England |
Addresses:
1. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Wellcome Trust Ctr Epidemiol Infect Dis, Oxford OX1 3PS, England |
| Publisher: AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE, 1200 NEW YORK AVE, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005 USA |
| Subject Category: Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| IDS Number: ZM380 |
| ISSN: 0036-8075 |
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| | | | | | | | | Record from Web of Science® | | | | | | | | | |