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| Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming |
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| Author(s): Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, Descimon H, Huntley B, Kaila L, Kullberg J, Tammaru T, Tennent WJ, Thomas JA, Warren M |
| Source: NATURE Volume: 399 Issue: 6736 Pages: 579-583 Published: JUN 10 1999 |
| Times Cited: 434 References: 20 |
| Abstract: Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years(1-3) Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration(4), but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of individuals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at the southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single species' or to only a portion of the species' range(6,7). Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35-240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south. |
| Document Type: Article |
| Language: English |
| Reprint Address: Parmesan, C (reprint author), Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, 735 State St,Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA |
Addresses:
1. Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA
2. Uppsala Univ, Sect Zool Ecol, Evolutionary Biol Ctr, S-75236 Uppsala, Sweden
3. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, Barcelona 08458, Spain
4. Univ Durham, Dept Biol Sci, Environm Res Ctr, Durham DH1 3LE, England
5. Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire England
6. Univ Aix Marseille 1, Lab Systemat Evolut, F-13331 Marseille 3, France
7. Univ Helsinki, Div Entomol, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland
8. Estonian Agr Univ, Inst Bot & Zool, EE-51014 Tartu, Estonia
9. Nat Hist Museum, Biogeog & Conservat Lab, London SW7 5BD, England
10. Inst Terr Ecol, Furzebrook Res Stn, Wareham BH20 5AS, Dorset England
11. Butterfly Conservat, Wareham BH20 5YA, Dorset England |
| Publisher: MACMILLAN MAGAZINES LTD, PORTERS SOUTH, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND |
| Subject Category: Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| IDS Number: 204RR |
| ISSN: 0028-0836 |
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