| | |  | | | | Record from Web of Science® | | | | | | |
| Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100 |
|
|
| Author(s): Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff NL, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH |
| Source: SCIENCE Volume: 287 Issue: 5459 Pages: 1770-1774 Published: MAR 10 2000 |
| Times Cited: 959 References: 38 |
| Abstract: Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and Land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably wilt have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change. |
| Document Type: Review |
| Language: English |
| Reprint Address: Sala, OE (reprint author), Univ Buenos Aires, Dept Ecol, Ave San Martin 4453, RA-1417 Buenos Aires, DF Argentina |
Addresses:
1. Univ Buenos Aires, Dept Ecol, RA-1417 Buenos Aires, DF Argentina
2. Univ Buenos Aires, Inst Invest Fisiol & Ecol Vinculadas Agr, Fac Agron, RA-1417 Buenos Aires, DF Argentina
3. Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
4. Univ Alaska, Inst No Forest Cooperat Res, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
5. Univ Chile, Fac Ciencias, Santiago, Chile
6. Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Integrat Biol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
7. Environm Def Fund, New York, NY 10010 USA
8. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ecol, Mexico City 04510, DF Mexico
9. Tech Univ Munich, Lehrstuhl Grunlandlehre, D-85350 Munich, Germany
10. New Mexico State Univ, Dept Biol, Las Cruces, NM 88003 USA
11. Duke Univ, Dept Bot, Durham, NC 27708 USA
12. Arizona State Univ, Dept Biol, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
13. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands
14. Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
15. Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
16. Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
17. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
18. Lund Univ, Ekologihuset, S-22362 Lund, Sweden
19. Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, Div Wildlife & Ecol, Canberra, ACT Australia |
| Publisher: AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE, 1200 NEW YORK AVE, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005 USA |
| Subject Category: Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| IDS Number: 292BY |
| ISSN: 0036-8075 |
|
| | | | | | | | | Record from Web of Science® | | | | | | | | | |