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| The epidemiology and iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: A Bayesian coalescent approach |
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| Author(s): Pybus OG, Drummond AJ, Nakano T, Robertson BH, Rambaut A |
| Source: MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION Volume: 20 Issue: 3 Pages: 381-387 Published: MAR 2003 |
| Times Cited: 71 References: 40 |
| Abstract: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive anti schistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process. |
| Document Type: Article |
| Language: English |
| Reprint Address: Pybus, OG (reprint author), Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 2JD, England |
Addresses:
1. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 2JD, England
2. Univ Auckland, Sch Biol Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand
3. Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Div Viral Hepatitis, Atlanta, GA USA |
| Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND |
| Subject Category: Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; Evolutionary Biology; Genetics & Heredity |
| IDS Number: 661WY |
| ISSN: 0737-4038 |
| DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msg043 |
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